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Prediction for CME (2026-01-06T02:00:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2026-01-06T02:00Z
DONKI Link: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/43769/-1
CME Note: Wide CME first seen to the East in SOHO LASCO C2 beginning at 2026-01-06T02:00Z, as well as by SOHO LASCO C3 and GOES CCOR-1 in later frames. This CME is not seen in STEREO A COR2 due to a data gap from 2026-01-05T17:23Z to 2026-01-06T04:23Z. The source of this event is a C2.2 class flare and associated eruption from Active Region 14334 (S15E33) which began at approx. 2026-01-06T00:15Z. This flare is visible in SDO AIA 131, along with dimming seen in SDO AIA 193 and 211. Field line opening can be seen in SDO AIA 171 and GOES SUVI 284. Arrival characterized by an amplification of magnetic field components with Btotal increasing from 4nT at 2026-01-08T04:57Z to 14nT at 2026-01-08T16:24Z. A subsequent increase in solar wind speed is observed from ~375 km/s at 2026-01-08T04:57Z to ~430 at 17:12Z. Throughout this signature an increase in temperature is observed from ~25,000 K to ~60,000 K, with density increasing from ~4p/cc to ~18 p/cc.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2026-01-08T04:57Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 3.67

Predicted Arrival Time: 2026-01-09T08:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 50.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: SIDC
Prediction Method Note: 
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 60107
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 07 Jan 2026, 1230UT
SIDC FORECAST
SOLAR FLARES  : C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 07 Jan 2026  10CM FLUX: 142 / AP: 004
PREDICTIONS FOR 08 Jan 2026  10CM FLUX: 138 / AP: 011
PREDICTIONS FOR 09 Jan 2026  10CM FLUX: 135 / AP: 040

Coronal mass ejections: A faint coronal mass ejection (SIDC CME 619) was
observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 at around 02:12 UTC on January 6, directed toward
the southeast from Earth’s perspective. The CME is likely associated with a
C2.1 flare, peaking at 00:21 UTC on January 6, produced by SIDC Sunspot
Group 722 (NOAA Active Region 4334) and a small coronal dimming. Analysis
indicates a possible glancing blow impact at Earth early on January 09.
Lead Time: 19.42 hour(s)
Difference: -27.05 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Melissa Kane (M2M SWAO) on 2026-01-07T09:32Z
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